The creators of this tool from Climate Central, Inc. call it the ๐๐น๐ถ๐บ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐ฆ๐ต๐ถ๐ณ๐ ๐๐ป๐ฑ๐ฒ๐ (CSI). It quantifies how much more likely a dayโs temperature is due to human-caused climate change. The result is a simple number:
- +5 means the day was at least 5ร more likely because of climate change.
- 0 means no detectable signal.
- โ5 means less likely due to warming (uncommon, but possible).
Itโs calculated every day, using a robust blend of climate models and observed data. The result is a real-time diagnostic of the climate signal in local weather. What makes this so powerful is how climate attribution science has evolved to the point where we can communicate daily weather occurrences into climate signals. Tools like CSI translate statistical attribution into a metric that can be interpreted by the public. E.g. the temperature today is 5x more likely.ย That shift in communication matters.
ย ๐๐ ๐บ๐ฎ๐ธ๐ฒ๐ ๐ฐ๐น๐ถ๐บ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐ฟ๐ถ๐๐ธ ๐๐ถ๐๐ถ๐ฏ๐น๐ฒ.
People donโt ‘feel’ global averages. They live in towns and cities that experience real temperatures. CSI allows them to see how climate change is shaping their local conditions.
ย ๐๐ ๐๐๐ฝ๐ฝ๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐ ๐ฒ๐๐ถ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐ป๐ฐ๐ฒ-๐ฏ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ฑ ๐๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐๐ฒ๐น๐น๐ถ๐ป๐ด.
A +4 CSI score is not a metaphor. Itโs a statistical finding, updated daily. That allows forecasters, journalists, and policymakers to ground their communication in clear, defensible terms.
ย ๐๐ ๐ฏ๐๐ถ๐น๐ฑ๐ ๐ฎ ๐ฏ๐ฟ๐ถ๐ฑ๐ด๐ฒ ๐ฏ๐ฒ๐๐๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ป ๐ธ๐ป๐ผ๐๐น๐ฒ๐ฑ๐ด๐ฒ ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ ๐ฎ๐ด๐ฒ๐ป๐ฐ๐.
Attribution has long been a rearview-mirror exercise confirming, after the fact, that a heatwave was more likely by X in a warming world. CSI shifts that dynamic. It tells people, in the present tense, what role climate change is playing in todayโs weather.
๐ ๐ ๐ง๐ฎ๐ธ๐ฒ
The CSI is a tool that provides a rigorous, scalable, and localised measure of climate influence, and importantly, it’s freely available. For those working in climate risk, sustainability, or public communication, it offers a new way to connect global change with local experiences. This matters because local experiences are what drive public understanding, and public understanding is what shapes political will.
Try it out yourself: https://lnkd.in/ekrPDDkx
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Read the peer-reviewed paper: https://lnkd.in/e5SfBK9t
